Paul Ryan's standing in GOP tied more than ever to Donald Trump

WASHINGTON - As damaging as it was, Paul Ryan’s failure to pass a health care bill last week would have been an even bigger political nightmare for the House speaker had it prompted a sharp and open break with President Donald Trump.

But so far Trump (unlike some of his supporters) has publicly stood by Ryan after a setback embarrassing to both men.

A year’s worth of polling in Wisconsin underscores just how critical the Trump relationship has become to Ryan’s standing inside his own party.

For the first time, Trump is more popular than Ryan with Republican voters in the speaker’s home state, according to a recent survey by the Marquette University Law School taken before Ryan pulled his health care bill.

That’s a mammoth change from a year ago, when Trump lagged far behind Ryan with GOP voters in Wisconsin.

The polling shows that Ryan’s popularity with Republicans back home has shifted as his relationship with Trump has evolved.

When the two were openly at odds last summer and fall, Ryan’s ratings in his party worsened.

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But since Trump’s election as president, the two have largely refrained from criticizing each other, and Ryan’s ratings have risen.

These shifts are part of a broader, polarizing trend among Wisconsin voters at the outset of the Trump presidency. The gap between how Democrats and Republicans feel about Trump has grown since last year. And the same is true of Ryan, who has been the state’s least polarizing politician in recent years.

The latest poll shows Ryan has become a more divisive political figure in his home state, while working closely with Trump under unified GOP rule in Washington.

The speaker’s ratings have improved within his own party, but they have gotten that much worse outside his party's base — among Democrats, liberals and moderates.

The Wisconsin polling is a revealing window into the impact Trump is having on key figures in the GOP. Because Marquette polls frequently, its surveys capture several distinct phases in the Trump-Ryan relationship since the beginning of last year:

Phase one (Trump’s struggles with the GOP base).

In late 2015 and early 2016, Trump had huge negatives with Republican voters in Wisconsin, culminating in his decisive defeat in the April 5 Wisconsin primary. Ryan broke with Trump over several issues during the early nominating fight, including his proposed Muslim ban. But that didn’t hurt Ryan’s standing with GOP voters back home because of Trump’s unpopularity.

In a Marquette poll released one year ago, Trump was viewed favorably by 36% of Wisconsin Republicans and unfavorably by 51%, for a “net favorability” rating of minus 15 points in his own party. Ryan had a net favorability rating of plus 62 points: He was viewed favorably by 76% of Wisconsin Republicans and unfavorably by just 14%.

Phase two (Trump’s rise among Republicans).

Trump’s march toward the GOP nomination and his general election fight with Democrat Hillary Clinton coincided with a major uptick in his GOP ratings. But the Trump-Ryan relationship remained troubled. Ryan refused to endorse Trump in early May. Trump sniped at Ryan and praised his little-known congressional primary opponent last August. Ryan uninvited Trump to Wisconsin after the October release of the “Access Hollywood” tape showing Trump bragging years earlier about groping women.

But the intraparty politics was shifting during this time. As the nominee, Trump commanded much more support from GOP voters. In Wisconsin, his net favorability rating rose from minus 15 in the spring of 2016 to plus 40 in the fall.

The feuding between Trump and Ryan had no impact on Ryan's easy GOP primary victory. But it coincided with a decline last fall in Ryan’s standing with Wisconsin Republicans. The speaker’s net favorability rating with GOP voters dropped from 76% in July to 46% at the end of October. In a poll just before the November election, 21% of Wisconsin Republicans had a negative view of Ryan. That doesn’t sound like a big number. But it was three times higher than Ryan’s average negative rating among GOP voters in Marquette’s surveys dating back to 2012.

Phase three (Republican voters unify behind Trump).

In the poll released a week ago by Marquette (its first since Trump took office), the president was viewed favorably by 89% of Wisconsin Republicans and unfavorably by 6%.

That’s a seismic shift from a year earlier when more Republicans in Wisconsin viewed him negatively than positively. In a state where Trump suffered a big primary loss and clashed repeatedly with party leaders last year, he’s now as popular with GOP voters (83% net favorability) as Gov. Scott Walker, and slightly more popular than Ryan (73%).

Since Trump got elected, his relationship with the speaker has been much warmer, marked by almost none of the public jabs or chilliness that characterized it last spring, summer and fall. Ryan has mostly steered clear of criticizing Trump falsehoods or dwelling on disagreements. Trump has publicly praised Ryan.

And this warmer phase in the relationship has coincided with notable shifts in Ryan’s polling numbers back home.

The speaker’s overall popularity rating hasn’t changed much. He was viewed positively by 45% of registered voters and negatively by 38% in Marquette’s March poll. 

But perceptions of Ryan among key subgroups have changed, as his image has further polarized along political lines.

Between October 2016 and March 2017, Ryan’s net favorability rating improved by 27 points among Republicans in Wisconsin. And it declined by 25 points among Democrats.

It got even better among conservatives, and got even worse among liberals.

For the first time in more than five years of Marquette surveys, Ryan now has a negative rating among self-described moderates in Wisconsin (41% view him favorably, 45% unfavorably).

This is a reversal of the trend last year, when Ryan — as an occasional Trump critic — gained support back home from moderates, independents, Democrats and liberals.

The speaker's favorability among Democrats wasn’t high — peaking at 29% last August — but it was far higher in Wisconsin than that of any other well-known Republican.

In the latest poll, Ryan’s favorability among Democrats dropped to 16%.

Politically, this is hardly a bad trade-off for Ryan. As House speaker, it is much more important to him to maximize his support from GOP voters than to “over-perform” with Democrats, liberals or even moderates.

But the polling suggests that Ryan’s standing in his own party is tied more closely than ever to his relationship with Trump, the dominant and volatile leader of the GOP.

Their relationship could sour again, especially if there are further setbacks in Congress. And if that happens, it could be very damaging to Ryan, even in his own state, where his popularity among Republicans has been unquestioned.