3 reasons the presidential race is close in Ohio
Despite what you've heard about the presidential race, it's still close in Ohio.
The last two weeks have seen a flood of dire pronouncements and forecasts on Republican Donald Trump's performance in the general election. He doubled down on a kerfuffle involving the father of a slain Muslim U.S. soldier. He appeared to suggest gun violence against Democrat Hillary Clinton or her potential Supreme Court picks. He has fallen in polls, nationally and in swing states. On Thursday, he spoke of "regret" for having said "the wrong thing ... particularly where it may have caused personal pain." On Friday, he accepted the resignation of his second campaign chief.
Clinton hasn't had the best couple of weeks, by normal presidential campaign standards. She has faced continued questions about foreign donations and suggestions of influence peddling at the Clinton Foundation, and emails still trickle out from the private server she maintained as secretary of state. She hasn't held a press conference since December. But compared with Trump, she has soared. She had a 47 percent to 41 percent lead over Trump in Real Clear Politics' average of national polls this week. In swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia and New Hampshire, her lead has grown to between 9 and 13 percentage points since the Democratic convention.
Clinton is leading in Ohio, but the race remains within the margin of error. She and Trump had been tied for months; now Clinton leads Trump 46 percent to 41.5 percent in polls since the end of July.
In other words, even in 2016, this is still the ultimate swing state. Here's why.
1. Ohio has the working-class white voters that make up Trump's support base.
Since last year, Trump's most strident supporters have been blue-collar white voters, who back Trump's opposition to free trade and agree with him that U.S. immigration trends have threatened their job security. College-educated white voters have been more wary of Trump.
Yes, we know Ohio is industrial (there's that "Rust Belt" thing, remember?), but we can show the base of Trump's support with numbers. Nearly three-fourths of white Ohioans over the age of 25 lack a bachelor's degree. That's nearly the top percentage among swing states, according to data analyzed by the people who conduct the NBC / Wall Street Journal poll. In total, that group makes up 63 percent of the Ohio electorate over the age of 25, also nearly the top percentage among swing states.
To compare, New Hampshire, another heavily white swing state, has a better-educated population. Only two-thirds of white Granite Staters lack college degrees. And, yep, Clinton has a 13-point lead there in recent polls.
What about Pennsylvania, Ohio's neighboring swing state? It does have swaths of working-class white voters, although not as many as Ohio. But the state changes as you drive east – a big reason why Clinton leads by about nine percentage points in recent polls.
“Suburban Philadelphia has a lot of college-educated voters," said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor at the Cook Political Report, a forecasting group. "I’ve heard of polls that have Trump down 40, 50 points in that region. That and the African-American vote in Philadelphia accounts for (Clinton's) lead.”
White working-class voters, by the way, historically have voted for Democrats in Ohio. So their support for Trump, over the protests of some of their unions, helps to balance out the race as Trump turns off some moderate, well-educated Republican voters.
Still, "all the things that help Mr. Trump in Ohio, they aren’t enough to put him ahead. He still trails," said Peter Brown, a pollster from Quinnipiac University who directs Ohio surveys. Margins of error aside, Clinton is ahead, he said. "She benefits from when Trump misspeaks or alienates a specific group of voters.”
Because of Trump, Democrats worry swing-state Ohio slipping into 'Valley'
2. One group that is relatively small in Ohio? Latinos.
Only about 3 percent of Ohio's population are Latinos, compared with an estimated 17 percent nationally in 2014. Even though we're the seventh-largest state by population, we rank 42nd in percent of our population that is Latino, according to the American Communities Survey and the Pew Research Center.
Much of Trump's rhetoric about immigration and building a wall on the border with Mexico has alienated Latino voters, but that has proved less of a problem in Ohio.
(Note that Florida polls, however, have Clinton ahead by the exact same margin as in Ohio, even though the state's percentage of Latino residents ranks sixth in the U.S. Trump trails by at least 10 percentage points in Colorado, but is essentially tied with Clinton in Nevada, two other states with large Latino populations. As always, all of these demographic factors interact with each other and shouldn't be viewed in a vacuum. And remember that Latinos are a diverse voting group, representing a variety of races, nationalities and generational statuses in the U.S., which have historically supported both Republicans and Democrats.)
Reasons No. 1 and 2 are factors to consider as we ponder Trump's choice for his first general election ad in Ohio. The commercial, says the U.S. immigration system under Clinton would be "rigged against Americans," complete with a warning about an open border with Mexico. "Donald Trump’s America is secure," the ad continues, leaning on the messaging Trump used to win the GOP primary, rather than pivoting to a more inclusive message. Clinton spokesman Brian Fallon tweeted Trump is "demonizing immigrants" in the piece.
The ad airs in several states, not just Ohio, but in the ultimate swing state, such a message may appeal to Trump's working-class voters, while the state has comparatively fewer Latinos to be alienated by the commercial.
"Voters we hear from understand that Hillary Clinton represents a third Obama term while the Trump-Pence campaign of tougher law enforcement, stopping illegal immigration and bringing back jobs is resonating strongly across the state," said Bob Paduchik, Trump's campaign chief in Ohio, in a statement.
3. No matter what happens, it's still Ohio.
"Ohio is always really close," Duffy said.
Clinton's 4.5-point lead? If that were to be her margin on Election Day, it would tie the largest margin of victory in the presidential contest in Ohio since 1996.
At this point in 2012, President Barack Obama's lead in Ohio over Republican Mitt Romney was a couple percentage points larger than the one Clinton has over Trump. Obama ended up winning only by 3 percentage points.
Remember, it's only August. We've got nearly three more months of this stuff. Polls can and will change before Nov. 8.