Rankin: Auburn, not Alabama, will make 2017 CFB playoff
Didn’t do so well the first year. Out of my four way-too early picks, Clemson was only one to make it.
Last year, I got two right – Alabama and Clemson.
So to stay on the upswing, I’m looking to nail three out of four this year. Before unveiling my 2017 playoff predictions, here are four teams I think will come up just short of making it this season.
Rankin: 2016 CFB Playoff picks have SEC flavor
USC. Winners of their last nine games, the Trojans have one of the nation’s top young quarterbacks in sophomore Sam Darnold, who threw five touchdowns in a 52-49 comeback win over Penn State in the Rose Bowl. They’ll have a great year, but I could see them losing in the conference title game.
Alabama. Talent will never be a problem under Nick Saban, but Alabama lost too much talent and experience on defense to return to the playoff for a fourth consecutive time.
Plus at some point, someone other that the Crimson Tide will make the playoff out of the Southeastern Conference right? Right?
Michigan. Just not sold on Wilton Speight being the quarterback to lead the Wolverines to the playoff. Plus they lost 10 starters on defense who were seniors.
Clemson. There’s no way Clemson returns to the playoff without Deshaun Watson. Not happening.
So who’s going to make it?
Florida State
2016 record: 10-3 (Beat Michigan, 33-32, in Orange Bowl).
Top losses: RB Dalvin Cook, DE DeMarcus Walker, WR Travis Rudolph, OT Roderick Johnson.
Top returnees: QB Deondre Francois, S Derwin James, DT Derrick Nnadi, CB Tarvarus McFadden.
Top signees: DT Marvin Wilson, RB Cam Akers, DE Joshua Kaindoh, CB Stanford Samuels III.
Top two games: Alabama (Sept. 2 in Atlanta) at Clemson (Nov. 11).
Why the Seminoles will make it? Florida State will send a message to nation in the opener against Alabama in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Having James back from a season-ending knee injury is huge and Jimbo Fisher will get that offensive line together to protect the talented and tough Francois.
FSU has just as much talent as Alabama. If the ‘Noles play up to their potential, they'll roll to the playoff.
Penn State
2016 record: 11-3 (Lost to USC, 52-49, in Rose Bowl).
Top losses: DE Garrett Sickels, WR Chris Godwin, LB Brandon Bell, C Brian Gaia.
Top returnees: QB Trace McSorley, RB Saquon Barkley, S Marcus Allen, OT Ryan Bates.
Top signees: OG C.J. Thorpe, QB Sean Clifford, CB Lamont Wade, DT Fred Hansard
Top two games: Michigan (Oct. 21) at Ohio State (Oct. 28)
Why the Nittany Lions will make it? Penn State has one of college football’s most explosive offenses. James Franklin must address that defense, but PSU is good enough to repeat as Big Ten champions.
After just missing the playoff, the Lions will be extra motivated in 2017. The rematch at Ohio State will be their biggest game in 10 years. Penn State will win it – and won’t come up short of the playoff this time.
Oklahoma State
2016 record: 10-3 (Beat Colorado, 38-8, in Alamo Bowl)
Top losses: DT Vincent Taylor, S Jordan Sterns, CB Ashton Lampkin, K Ben Grogan.
Top returnees: QB Mason Rudolph, WR James Washington, RB Justice Hill, LB Chad Whitener.
Top signees: WR Tylan Wallace, RB Chuba Hubbard, WR Shamond Greenwood, OT Arlington Hambright.
Top two games: Baylor (Oct. 14) Oklahoma (Nov. 4).
Why Oklahoma State will make it? The Big 12 refusing to recreate divisions is crazy, but reestablishing a title game played on a neutral field should improve its champion’s chances to make the playoff.
The Cowboys should reach that game. They have an ideal schedule, play Oklahoma at home and possess one of the nation’s best QB-WR duos in Mason Rudolph and James Washington.
Auburn
2016 record: 8-5 (Lost to Oklahoma, 35-19, in Sugar Bowl)
Top losses: DT Montravius Adams, LB Carl Lawson, DB Rudy Ford, LG Alex Kozan.
Top returnees: RB Kamryn Pettway, RB Kerryon Johnson, RG Braden Smith, K Daniel Carlson.
Top signees: QB Jarrett Stidham, OT Calvin Ashley, DE Markaviest Bryant, DB Malcolm Askew.
Top two games: at Clemson (Sept. 9), Alabama (Nov. 25).
Why Auburn will make it? The junior college transfer Stidham, who started out at Baylor is Auburn’s missing piece. Next to Alabama, Auburn has the most talent in the Southeastern Conference.
So it’s all on Gus Malzahn. Can he get it done? A victory at Clemson would put Auburn on the early playoff track. Winning at LSU won’t be easy, but Auburn has Georgia and Alabama at home.
So go ahead. Tell me why I’m wrong – again.