Which fantasy draft slot is best? It's not necessarily No. 1
The first decision the 13 team owners in last month's Fantasy Sports Trade Association draft made wasn't which player they wanted to build their team around with their first pick. It was the spot in the first round where they'd make that pick.
The FSTA is among a growing number of fantasy baseball leagues that allow owners to choose their optimal draft slot. As was the case the past few years, the most desired place to draft was first overall -- which Fantistics' Anthony Perri selected.
Is No. 1 optimal? It does guarantee the owner a chance to own the game's consensus No. 1 player, Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout. Conventional wisdom says having the first choice produces so much value relative to the rest of the player pool that the other owners will never be able to catch up.
However, that hypothesis is now being reexamined. Ron Shandler writes in the introduction to his 2017 Baseball Forecaster that taking the last spot in the first round (and getting the first pick in the second round) gives a fantasy owner a better chance of building a powerhouse.
RON SHANDLER'S BASEBALL FORECASTER | BaseballHQ.com
Why? Because it's so hard to predict who the top players will be in a given year.
Shandler writes:
If we have little control over how much the top players will earn, you want as many chances as possible to try to find the best players. ... I'd rather have two shots within the top 16 picks than two shots within the top 30 picks.
Of course, fantasy owners can't help but gravitate toward projections because those are the only numbers we have right now.
The projected standings from FantasyPros.com (as of Feb. 1), don't seem to embrace Shandler's point of view. Drafting 11th out of 13 teams, the projections have him finishing last and his Baseball HQ cohorts (who drafted 13th) finishing next-to-last.
2017 FSTA league projected standings (with draft slot)
1. CDM Sports -- Charlie Wiegert/Vlad Sedler (No. 5)
2. Fantistics - Anthony Perri (No. 1)
3. RotoWire - Derek Van Riper/Jeff Erickson (No. 7)
4. Fantasy Alarm - Jeff Mans/Ted Schuster (No. 10)
5. USA TODAY Sports - Steve Gardner/Howard Kamen (No. 4)
6. NFBC - Greg Ambrosius/Tom Kessenich (No. 6)
7. MastersBall - Lawr Michaels/Todd Zola (No. 3)
8. SiriusXM - Ray Flowers (No. 9)
9. Scout Fantasy - "Dr. Roto" Mark Bloom (No. 12)
10. Colton & the Wolfman - Glenn Colton/Stacie Stern (No. 2)
11. FNTSY - Mike Cardano/Chris Meaney (No. 8)
12. Baseball HQ - Ray Murphy/Brett Hershey (No. 13)
13. RonShandler.com - Ron Shandler (No. 11)
But of course, that's why we play the games.
What we learned in our first fantasy baseball draft of 2017
Perhaps it's more instructive to see how the first two picks for each team paired up. (And since this is a 13-team league, your mileage may vary.)
1. OF Mike Trout, 2B Brian Dozier
2. OF Mookie Betts, 2B Robinson Cano
3. 3B Nolan Arenado, 1B Freddie Freeman
4. 2B Jose Altuve, SS Francisco Lindor
5. 1B Paul Goldschmidt, SP Madison Bumgarner
6. 3B/OF Kris Bryant, 1B Edwin Encarnacion
7. SP Clayton Kershaw, 2B/OF Trea Turner
8. 3B/SS Manny Machado, OF George Springer
9. 1B Anthony Rizzo, SS Carlos Correa
10. SP Max Scherzer, OF Starling Marte
11. OF Charlie Blackmon, 1B Joey Votto
12. OF Bryce Harper, 1B Miguel Cabrera
13. 3B Josh Donaldson, SS Corey Seager
Which pairing looks like the best one to start a draft?
COMPLETE RESULTS:2017 FSTA draft
It's hard to argue with Donaldson and Seager. Harper and Cabrera could be a powerhouse. And don't sell Kershaw and Turner short; both of those are excellent values, relative to their current ADPs.
What drafters have to remember is the first two rounds set the course for an overall draft strategy. If you're light on power or speed (or pitching) after Round 2, you need to map out a strategy to secure those missing stats.
Owners in this draft started going after power or speed contributors almost immediately with Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Villar, Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon all selected in Round 3 (and Billy Hamilton with the first pick in Round 4).
The bottom line: Your options will be at least somewhat affected by your draft spot. And the tough decisions could present themselves much earlier than you might expect.